Journal of Tax Reform
Tax reforms and elections in modern Russia
Igor A. Mayburov 1, Anna P. Kireenko 2
1 Ural Federal University named the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
2 Baikal State University, Irkutsk, Russian Federation
Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of the tax reforms in modern Russia. Tax reforms carried out since the beginning of the 1990s are analyzed in connection with the cyclical repetition of the stages of the electoral process, or the so-called electoral cycle. The research methodology includes the calculation of indicators characterizing the change in the tax system and the analysis of their dynamics at various stages of the electoral cycle. The main quantitative and qualitative indicators are: the tax burden on the economy as a whole (nominal and real); the tax burden on individual elements of GDP (on wages, on gross profit, on actual final consumption); the number of changes made to tax legislation; terms and procedure of tax amnesty. Three stages of tax reforms have been identified (1993–1996, 1997–2000, 2001–present) for research in modern history of Russia. The first two stages of tax reforms directly coincided with the electoral cycles. The third modern stage of tax reforms is implemented during several electoral cycles. The revealed influence of elections on the tax system of Russia results in a cyclical increase of the tax burden on the main elements of GDP in the first years of cycles and lowering of the tax burden in the final years of electoral cycles. In the elective period for elections to the State Duma, the nominal tax burden on the economy is always reduced. In the election year and next year of the electoral cycle, there is an increase in effective rates for profit, consumption and labor. In the final years of the electoral cycle, there is a decrease in effective rates for profit, consumption and labor. Thus, the results of the study confirmed the assumption on the existence of a relationship between tax reforms and elections in Russia and the possibility of increasing the tax burden in the short term
Keywords
Tax reform, transformation of the tax system, tax burden, tax legislation, tax amnesty, electoral cycle, presidential elections, elections to the State Duma
JEL classification
E62, H30Highlights
1. The relationship between tax reforms and electoral cycles in Russia is unambiguously present. The intensity of the relationship is determined by the degree of competition in the elections
2. The electoral cycles for the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation have a stronger impact on tax reforms in Russia
3. Legislative activity on reforming the tax system of the Russian Federation is associated with the stages of the electoral cycle (declining in the election year in the State Duma and increasing in the pre-election period)
4. Tax amnesties are unambiguously connected with the electoral process and their conduct is confined to the elective period
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Acknowledgements
The article is processed as an output of a research project “Stimulation of the New Silk Road Economic Belt Development: Synchronization of Fiscal Instruments and Customs Procedures” registered by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research under the registration number No. 17-22-21001-ОГН.
About Authors
Igor A. Mayburov — Doctor of Economics,, Professor, Head of the Department of Financial and Tax Management, Ural Federal University named the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (19 Mira St., 620002, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation); Far Eastern Federal University (8 Suhanova St., 690950, Vladivostok, Russian Federation); ORCID: 0000-0001-8791-665X; e-mail: mayburov.home@gmail.com
Anna P. Kireenko — Doctor of Economics,, Professor, Head of Taxes and Customs Department Baikal State University (11 Lenin St., 664003, Irkutsk, Russian Federation); ORCID: 0000-0002-7860-5929; e-mail: kireenko-ap@bgu.ru
For citation
Mayburov I. A., Kireenko A. P. Tax reforms and elections in modern Russia. Journal of Tax Reform, 2018, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 73–94. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2018.4.1.046
Article info
Received March 12, 2018; accepted April 15, 2018
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2018.4.1.046
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