Journal of Tax Reform
Modern Tax Trends and Economic Growth in a Turbulent World: Insights from Developed and Developing Economies
Sergey V. Bogachov1 , Valentine P. Vishnevsky 2, Aleksandr V. Gurnak 1, Viktoria D. Nekliudova 3
1 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
2 Institute of Economic Research, Donetsk, Russian Federation
3 Independent Researcher, Sevastopol, Russian Federation
Abstract
The article examines recent trends in tax level and structure changes within developed and developing economies in relation to economic growth. The study’s significance stems from increasing geo-economic turbulence and emerging risks in the global economy, necessitating fiscal regulation. The analysis spans the period from 2009, post the Great Recession, to the present day.
We tested the hypothesis that discernible patterns could be identified through statistical analysis regarding the relationship between tax indicators (level and structure) and economic growth indicators. However, no such clear patterns were found. In essence, it cannot be definitively concluded that reduced tax levels and/or increased indirect tax shares do explicitly foster national economic growth. Tax impact on economic growth varies significantly across developed and developing economies, presenting a complex and nuanced picture. The nature and strength of this influence are largely shaped by the specific circumstances of each location and period. In order to identify their unique impact, counterfactual analysis is required.
In the course of further research, it is important to consider, firstly, the increased fiscal activism of the post-pandemic period: in this case, the research outcomes may be different from those obtained for the period already examined. Secondly, considering the ongoing processes of geo-economic fragmentation, it is recommended to re-examine the influence of taxes on economic processes. This investigation should adhere to the evolving framework of new macro-regions worldwide, rather than the conventional dichotomy of developed and developing economies. Participants within these macro-regions, interconnected through supply and value chains, will need to work together to align their tax rules and policies for mutual benefits.
Keywords
taxation, tax policy, fiscal activism, economic growth, developed economies, developing economies
JEL classification
E62, F43, H20, O47References
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Acknowledgements
The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
About Authors
Sergey V. Bogachov – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor of Taxes and Tax Administration Department, Leading Researcher of the Center for Scientific Research and Strategic Consulting of the Faculty of Taxes, Audit and Business Analysis, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49/2 Leningradskiy Ave., Moscow, 125167); ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8938-0315; e-mail: sergeybogachov@yandex.ru
Valentine P. Vishnevsky – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Chief Researcher of the Department of Financial and Economic Research, Institute of Economic Research (77 Universitetskaya St., Donetsk, 283048); ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8539-0444; e-mail: vvishn@mail.ru
Aleksandr V. Gurnak – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of Taxes and Tax Administration Department, Leading Researcher of the Center for Scientific Research and Strategic Consulting of the Faculty of Taxes, Audit and Business Analysis, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (49/2 Leningradskiy Ave., Moscow, 125167); ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4514-6885; e-mail: AVGurnak@fa.ru
Viktoria D. Nekliudova – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Independent Researcher, Sevastopol, Russian Federation; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2118-901X; e-mail: vdnekliudova@yandex.ru
For citation
Bogachov S.V., Vishnevsky V.P., Gurnak A.V., Nekliudova V.D. Modern Tax Trends and Economic Growth in a Turbulent World: Insights from Developed and Developing Economies. Journal of Tax Reform. 2024;10(1):63–83. doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2024.10.1.157
Article info
Received February 14, 2024; Revised March 5, 2024; Accepted March 26, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2024.10.1.157
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